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Contents
Introduction1
OrganizationoftheHandbook..............1
Chapter1.AnoverviewofEconomicAnalysis...........3
PurposeofEconomicAnalysis..............3
TheEconomicSetting..3
RationaleforPublicSectorInvolvement3
OtherAspectsofProjectAnalysis.........4
Fungibility....4
TheQuestionsthatEconomicAnalysisShouldAnswer..5
Whatistheobjectiveoftheproject?....5
Whatwillhappeniftheprojectisundertaken?Whatifitisnot?..5
Istheprojectthebestalternative?........5
Arethereanyseparablecomponents?Howgoodarethey?.........6
Winnersandlosers:Whoenjoysthemusic?Whopaysthepiper?.........6
Whatistheproject’sfiscalimpact?......6
Istheprojectfinanciallysustainable?....6
Whatistheproject’senvironmentalimpact?.......6
Techniquesforassessment:Istheprojectworthwhile?.7
Isthisariskyproject?.7
TheProcessofEconomicanalysis.........7
Transparency8
Chapter2.RationaleforPublicProvision...9
GeneralConsiderations........10
MarketFailures..........10
NaturalMonopolies..10
Externalities...11
PublicGoods..12
AsymmetricInformationandIncompleteMarkets.......13
OtherGroundsforPublicIntervention16
PovertyReduction....16
MeritGoods...16
DistributionofExternalities..16
Summary...........18
Chapter3.NumerairePriceLevelandRealvs.NominalPrices.....20
NumeraireandPriceLevel...20
RealPricesvs.NominalPrices............22
ConstantPricesvs.RealPrices22
RealandNominalReturns.......23
ProfitabilityofIndividualProjectEntities..........24
Chapter4.ConsiderationofAlternatives..25
“With”andWithout”Comparisons......25
PrivateSectorCounterfactual..............27
SeparableComponents.........28
Chapter5.GettingtheFlowRight:IdentifyingCostsandBenefits.29
CashFlowAnalysis....30
SunkCosts...........30
InterestPaymentsandRepaymentofPrincipal..............30
InterestduringConstruction.31
PhysicalContingencies.........31
TransferPayments......31
TaxesvsUserCharges............32
Subsidies........32
DonationsandContributionsinKind...32
TheChinaAgriculturalSupportServicesProject:AnExample.............32
Externalities...............33
ConsumerSurplus......34
MeasuringConsumerSurplus..34
NetBenefitsProfile..35
Chapter6.GettingthePricesRight:MarketPricesvs.EconomicCosts.37
ValuationofInputsandOutputs..........37
TradeableandNontradeableGoods.....37
ValuationofTradeableGoods.............38
ShadowExchangeRate........41
PremiumonForeignExchange............41
OtherSourcesofPremia......43
ValuationonNontradeableGoodsandServices...........43
MaterialInputs.........43
Land43
Wages............44
ConversionFactors....45
MarginalCostofPublicFunds............46
Chapter7.ValuingEnvironmentalExternalities....47
Externalities47
EnvironmentalExternalities..48
ProjectBoundariesandTimeHorizon.49
ValuationofEnvironmentalImpacts....49
LossinProductivity..51
Dose-Response.........52
MeasuringIntangibles..............54
ShadowProject........55
PreventingandMitigatingEnvironmentalImpacts........56
Chapter8.CostEffectiveness..........57
RelatingCoststoBenefits:Cost-EffectivenessAnalysis.........57
Cost-EffectivenessinHealth....58
AssessingUnitCosts..60
RelatingCoststoBenefits:WeightedCost-Effectiveness.......61
ApplicationinEducation......61
ApplicationinHealth.62
ComparingOptionswithSubjectiveOutcomes.............62
SomeImportantCaveats......63
Chapter9.AssessmentofEducationProjects.........64
CategoriesofProjectCosts..64
OrganizingandPresentingtheCostData..........65
RelatingCoststoBenefits:Cost-BenefitAnalysis........66
EvaluatingInvestmentswithIn-SchoolBenefits66
EvaluatingInvestmentswithOut-of-SchoolBenefits..68
IncorporatingtheValueofExternalities............72
Annex9A20xxputingRatesofReturntoEducationbyLevel..............74
Chapter10.EconomicEvaluationofHealthProjects.......77
TheStepsofEconomicAnalysis.........78
AnImmunizationExample...78
IdentifyingandQuantifyingtheEffects.............79
DisplacementofExistingActivities....80
IsaLifeSavedTodayasValuableasaLifeSavedTomorrow?..80
Effectiveness..81
CostEffectiveness....83
WeightedCost-Effectiveness...84
Cost-BenefitAnalysis.88
ValueofLife..............91
Annex10A.ExamplesofMeasuresofPerformance....92
Annex10B.ExamplesofPotentialBenefitsfromHealthProjects.........93
Chapter11.EconomicEvaluationofTransportProjects.94
Introduction94
ForecastingDemand..95
NormalGeneratedandDivertedTraffic.......95
ReductionofVehicleOperatingCosts.98
TimeSavings.............99
TheValueofWorkingTime.99
TheValueofNon-WorkingTime......100
WalkingandWaitingTime.100
FreightTraffic..........100
TheValueofTimeoverTime...........101
DefaultValues.........101
AccidentReduction..102
EstimatingtheIncidenceofAccidents.........102
ValuingAccidentReduction..............102
ProducerSurplusorNetNationalIncomeApproach..103
NetworkEffectswithinaMode.........105
InterModalEffects..105
Timing.....107
EnvironmentalImpact........108
TheHighwayDevelopmentModelHDMIII.............108
GainersandLosers...109
FiscalImpact............109
Chapter12.RiskandSensitivityAnalysis.............110
SensitivityAnalysis..111
SwitchingValues.....111
SelectionofVariablesandDepthofAnalysis..............111
PresentationofSensitivityAnalysis...112
ShortcomingsofSensitivityAnalysis.113
TheExpectedNetPresentValueCriterion..113
NPVvs.“BestEstimates:..114
ProductsofVariablesandInteractionsamongProjectComponents.....115
MonteCarloSimulationandRiskAnalysis..116
AssigningProbabilityDistributionsofProjectComponents..116
AssigningCorrelationsamongProjectComponents....118
AdvantagesofEstimatingExpectedNPVandAssessingRisk:
AHypotheticalExample...........119
Risk-NeutralityandGovernmentDecisionMaking.....123
WhentheNPVCriterionisInadequate........124
Chapter13.GainerandLosers.....127
Dan’sClinic.............127
RepublicofMauritius:HigherandTechnicalEducationProject..........130
ProjectObjectiveandBenefits.........130
ProjectComponents..............131
AlternativesConsidered.........131
EconomicAnalysis.131
EstimatesofCosts..133
FiscalImpactAnalysis...........137
APublicSectororPrivateSectorProject?......137
RiskAnalysis137
Sustainability139
CostRecovery........140
EstimateofBenefits:Students’Viewpoint.....140
Conclusions..142
Annex13A.EstimationoftheShadowExchangeRate........143
Annex13B.KeyAssumptions..........146
TechnicalAppendix.........147
DiscountingandCompoundingTechniques.147
TheMechanicsofDiscountingandCompounding......147
NetPresentValueCriterion..............148
InternalRateofReturn.......148
ComparisonofMutuallyExclusiveAlternatives..........150
TheDiscountRate..152
ConceptualFramework......152
TradedGoods..........156
NontradedbutTradeableGoods.....158
NontradeableGoods159
TheShadowExchangeRate..............160
Distortion-FreeCase.............160
UniformImportDuty............161
MultipleImportDuties..........162
QuantitativeRestrictions....163
ExchangeRateAdjustment....165
TheOpportunityCostofCapital.......166
TheShadowWageRate.....171
Bibliography..........172......
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